Risk Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission Based on Demographic and Geographic Aspects in Semarang City in 2020
Analisis Risiko Penularan Covid-19 Berdasarkan Aspek Demografis dan Geografis Di Kota Semarang Tahun 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53770/amhj.v1i2.8Keywords:
Covid-19, Mapping, Vulnerability Level, SIGAbstract
Introduction : Semarang City is one of the cities in Indonesia that is included in the covid-19 red zone. On January 18, 2021, Semarang City had 24,690 covid-19 cases. A precautionary measure is needed to reduce the spread of covid-19 cases. Region-based disease management can be an effort to prevent the spread of covid-19. There are three methods in area-based disease management and one of them is using spatial analysis of disease transmission risk maps. This study aims to determine areas that are at risk of covid-19 transmission and to determine the relevance of the map made to the latest covid-19 cases. Methods: This type of research is a quantitative descriptive with a map output of the risk of covid-19 transmission. The results of the risk map will be compared with the current case to determine the level of relevance of the map using a scatterplot. Results: From the results of the study the areas that fall into the category of low risk of transmission are Tugu, Mijen, Gunungpati, Gajahmungkur, Candisari, Gayamsari, and Genuk sub-districts. Areas that fall into the moderate risk category are Ngaliyan, Tembalang, South Semarang, Central Semarang, East Semarang, and North Semarang. For areas that fall into the category of high risk of transmission, namely Districts West Semarang, Banyumanik, and Pedurungan. Based on the regression analysis, the risk score correlated with cases in January (r square = 0.843), February (r square = 0.740) and May (r square = 0.609). The risk score has a moderate correlation in March (r square = 0.551) and has a low correlation in April (r square = 0.331).Conclusion: There are 3 districts that fall into the category of high covid-19 transmission, 6 districts that fall into the category of moderate covid-19 transmission, and 7 subdistricts that fall into the category of low covid-19 transmission. The risk map is relevant to the daily cases of covid-19 cases in January, February and May. However the risk map is irrelevant to the daily covid-19 cases in March and April. It is hoped that future research can add PPKM variables so that it can produce a more accurate risk map.
Pendahuluan: Kota Semarang merupakan salah satu Kota di Indonesia yang masukdalam zona merah covid-19. Pada tanggal 18 Januari 2021 Kota Semarang terdapatkasus covid-19 sebanyak 24.690 kasus. Diperlukan suatu tindakan pencegahan untuk mengurangi penyebaran kasus covid-19. Manajemen penyakit berbasis wilayah dapat menjadi salah satu upaya dalam mencegah persebaran covid-19. Terdapat tiga metode dalam manajemen penyakit berbasis wilayah dan salah satunya adalah menggunakan analisis spasial peta risiko penularan penyakit. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui wilayah yang berisiko terjadi penularan covid-19 dan mengetahui relevansi peta yang dibuat dengan kasus covid-19terkini. Metode: Jenis penelitian ini merupakan deskriptif kuantitatif dengan luaran peta risiko penularan covid-19. Hasil peta risiko akan dibandingkan dengan kasus terkini untuk mengetahui tingkat relevansi peta menggunakan scatter plot. Hasil: Dari hasil penelitian wilayah yang masuk dalam kategori risiko penularan rendah yaitu kecamatan Tugu, Mijen, Gunungpati, Gajahmungkur, Candisari, Gayamsari, dan Genuk. Wilayah yang masuk kategori risiko penularan sedang yaitu Kecamatan Ngaliyan, Tembalang, Semarang Selatan, Semarang Tengah, Semarang Timur, dan Semarang Utara. Untuk wilayah yang masuk dalam kategori risiko penularan tinggi yaitu Kecamatan Semarang Barat, Banyumanik, dan Pedurungan. Berdasarkan analisis regresi skor risiko berkorelasi dengan kasus bulan Januari (r square= 0.843), Februari (r square = 0.740) dan Mei (r square = 0.609). Skor risiko memiliki korelasi sedang pada bulan Maret (r square = 0.551) dan memiliki korelasi rendah pada bulan April (r square = 0,331). Kesimpulan : Terdapat 3 kecamatan yang masuk kategori penularan covid-19 tinggi, terdapat 6 Kecamatan yang masuk kategori penularan covid-19 sedang, dan 7 Kecamatan masuk kategori penularan covid-19 rendah. Peta risiko relevan dengan kasus harian kasus harian covid-19 pada bulan Januari, Februari dan Mei. Namun peta risiko tidak relevan dengan kasus harian covid-19 pada bulan Maret dan April. Diharapkan untuk penelitian kedepannya dapat menambahkan variabel PPKM sehingga dapat menghasilkan peta risiko yang lebih akurat.
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